June 29, 2023   |   Ettore Greco, Federica Marconi, Irene Paviotti

Exploring the geopolitics of global crises

The research paper Crisis and geopolitical reordering: Covid-19 from a comparative perspective evaluates the influence of recent worldwide crises on the structure of international relations. It investigates, in particular, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the climate crisis on enduring patterns, and determines the extent to which they have shaped the global order.

A crisis can be defined as a serious threat that challenges the fundamental structures and values of a system and, therefore, necessitates vital decisions under time pressure and highly uncertain circumstances. The terms “permacrisis” and “polycrises” have been used to describe the multiple concurrent crises across various policy areas that characterize the current age. These interconnected crises have given rise to systemic or global-catastrophic risks that transcend traditional geographic boundaries.

The paper focuses on the geo-economic and geopolitical effects of the selected major crises of the 21st century on two pre-existing global trends: the global power shift and globalization. Over the past few decades, the world has transitioned, first, from the bipolarity of the Cold War to what has been described as a United States-dominated unipolarity, and more recently to an increasingly multipolar configuration. Emerging powers like China and India along with revisionist powers like Russia have challenged the influence of established powers such as the US and the European Union. Additionally, while globalization processes have fostered increased interdependence, several recent – and often inter-connected – developments have revealed a trend towards de-globalization.

The paper uses the concepts of order, risk, and resilience — three key components of the REGROUP conceptual framework – to delve into the causal relationships between recent global crises and long-term global trends, and discuss strategies for establishing more robust political and socio-economic systems.

What the analysis reveals

Each of the crises analysed has intensified existing trends stemming from previous crises. The repeated and often interconnected global shocks have profoundly shaped the world order, which now appears marked by the following features:

Fragility and conflictuality

The 2008 GFC may not have directly impacted international relations significantly, but it triggered a period of significant geopolitical transformation. It exposed vulnerabilities in the Western economic systems, highlighting the inadequacy of global economic governance in the face of the rapid growth in cross-border financial positions, and the embrace of financial liberalization. This has been followed, as a reaction, by a decline in global interconnectedness and a shift of power and political influence towards emerging Asian countries, particularly China.

The Covid-19 pandemic swiftly assumed geopolitical importance, testing the multilateral system by exacerbating existing divisions in the international order, and raising uncertainties about the future of globalization. The post-pandemic world order is fundamentally competitive, as demonstrated by the deepening of the rivalry between the US and China, the Russian aggression against Ukraine and the growing antagonism between democracies and autocracies.

The piling-up of risks

Global crises have exposed significant unaddressed or poorly managed risks that fuel the persistently high level of international instability. Despite measures taken to ensure financial stability, response to the GFC proved inadequate in addressing the structural instabilities of financial markets. The pandemic has served as a belated warning, highlighting the environmental impact of human development, the socioeconomic consequences of crisis response measures, and the widening gap between developed and developing countries. Moreover, the war in Ukraine, which hit when the vaccinated world was starting to leave the pandemic behind, has exacerbated global cleavages, including the North-South divide, accelerated the economic dynamics caused by Covid-19, notably the disruption of supply chains, and introduced additional major risks in the energy markets.

The need for reordering towards greater resilience

The current global order is fragile and conflict-prone, with vulnerabilities stemming from both persistent and new risks. As a result, cooperation to tackle global issues has become an increasingly daunting challenge.

Although governments coordinated short-term monetary and financial measures in response to the GFC, the global economy remains vulnerable to new financial shocks, and the current instruments of global economic governance appear insufficient. The initial response to the Covid-19 pandemic lacked coordination and solidarity, revealing structural deficiencies in the global health system. When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western nations demonstrated commendable resilience by forging effective collective action, despite varying national interests. However, the neutral stance of major powers such as India and China, along with a significant portion of developing countries, has hindered the formation of a broader global coalition. Furthermore, there remains a substantial gap between promises and actions in international efforts to combat climate change.

Considering the growing frequency of global crises caused by both predictable and unpredictable events, along with underlying factors of instability, there is a pressing need for a major reordering. The lessons learned from recent global crises highlight the necessity for a fundamental shift from risk management to strategic resilience underpinned by enhanced cooperative mechanisms. The development and implementation of more effective instruments of collaboration will help address ongoing and future global crises, thereby presenting opportunities to reshape the international order and foster a world that is more stable and prosperous.

This article highlights some of the findings in the REGROUP paper Crisis and Geopolitical Reordering: Covid-19 from a Comparative Perspective.