August 14, 2025 | Margherita Bianchi
Navigating Environmental Risks: Can the EU’s Green Agenda Weather Geopolitical Storms?
The European Union (EU) has boldly positioned itself at the forefront of global climate action through its European Green Deal, unveiled in late 2019. Bolstered by initiatives like Fit for 55 and REPowerEU, this ambitious plan charts a course toward climate neutrality by 2050. The EU Green Deal represents a transformative shift in environmental policy, setting ambitious benchmarks for emissions reduction, the stronger integration of renewable energy sources, and the promotion of sustainable development practices. Central to the Green Deal’s philosophy is the recognition of the interconnectedness of environmental integrity, economic prosperity, and social equity, with the overarching goal of fostering a more resilient and inclusive society. However, the journey toward a sustainable future is fraught with complexities and potential pitfalls. Indeed, as the world navigates a landscape of escalating geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and shifting political priorities, a critical question arises: Is the EU’s green agenda resilient enough to withstand these multifaceted challenges?
Several factors indeed pose significant challenges to the realization of the EU’s environmental ambitions. The surge in energy prices and high inflationary pressures, exacerbated by geopolitical instability, protectionisms, and supply chain disruptions, are placing immense strain on households and businesses across Europe. This economic pressure has fueled political resistance in some member states, with an increasing number of governments voicing concerns about the potential economic consequences of implementing stringent environmental policies. Furthermore, the growing emphasis on security and defense in response to global conflicts and the US disengagement has, to some extent, overshadowed the urgency and importance of addressing the climate crisis in Europe.
What’s at stake for the EU
The EU confronts both internal and external challenges as it strives to achieve a decarbonized future. Internally, the EU must ensure a just and equitable transition, effectively addressing the social and economic ramifications of climate-related policies. This necessitates targeted support mechanisms for vulnerable regions and communities, as well as strategic investments in education and skills training programs to facilitate the creation of new, high-quality green jobs.
Externally, the EU must proactively address the global dimensions of climate change, recognizing that climate action clearly requires international collaboration and shared (but differentiated) responsibility. This includes providing robust support to developing countries in their efforts to decarbonize their economies, as well as actively promoting international cooperation on climate policies and sustainable development initiatives. The EU must also remain vigilant in preventing a widening climate and social divide between the Global North and South ensuring that developing nations are not disproportionately burdened by the transition to a low-carbon economy.
Against this background the EU must be ready to progressively navigate the many changes coming from a wider decarbonization around the world: stronger digitalisation, regionalisation, decentralisation and electrification of energy production, transport, and consumption; the shifting concept of energy security and the renewal of energy and climate governance frameworks.
Striking the Right Chord: Engagement and Strategic Autonomy
The EU faces the delicate task of striking a balance between engagement and strategic autonomy in its relationships with key global actors, particularly China. While cooperation on climate change and other shared challenges is of paramount importance, the EU must also address concerns regarding unfair trade practices and human rights issues. Strengthening European production capacity and diversifying green value chains through strategic partnerships with other countries is another essential part of this exercise. This will not only reduce the EU’s dependence on external suppliers but also create new opportunities for sustainable economic growth and development in emerging economies, if well-managed.
As the global economy transitions toward a low-carbon future, the EU must prioritize the enhancement of its competitiveness in the green technology sector. This requires sustained investments in research and development, the promotion of innovation and entrepreneurship, and the creation of a business-friendly regulatory environment that encourages the development and deployment of cutting-edge green technologies. The EU should leverage its inherent strengths in innovation, technological leadership, and sustainability while avoiding protectionist policies that could stifle innovation, limit consumer choice, and undermine the EU’s commitment to free and open trade.
Navigating Uncertainty with Resilience and Vision
The EU’s Green Deal represents a bold and necessary step towards a more sustainable, resilient, and equitable future. However, to fully realize its ambitious goals, the EU must proactively address the challenges posed by geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and shifting political priorities. By fostering a just transition, promoting international cooperation, and maintaining a steadfast commitment to innovation and competitiveness, the EU can navigate the complexities of the 21st century and emerge as a global leader in the fight against climate change. This requires a blend of ambition, pragmatism, and a willingness to adapt to the ever-changing dynamics of the global landscape.
This text summarises some of the findings in the REGROUP paper “Rethinking the EU’s role in tackling interconnected environmental risks amid geoeconomic and political shifts“.