The Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on political cleavages in Europe: Lessons learned and policy recommendations for democratic resilience

The Covid-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted European political landscapes, not by creating entirely new cleavages but by activating, intensifying, and reconfiguring existing political divisions. This policy paper examines how the pandemic affected political cleavages across the European Union. The analysis reveals the emergence of a health-economy trade-off dimension, the differential activation of economic versus cultural grievances, and the strategic role of populist radical right parties (PRRPs) in politicizing the crisis. Key findings indicate that while the pandemic created new arenas of contestation, traditional ideological orientations and trust in scientific institutions remained the strongest predictors of political attitudes and behaviors. The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations for managing future crises while maintaining democratic resilience and social cohesion, that can be summarized as follows:

• Build long-term trust in scientific institutions: Invest in science communication, transparency protocols, and frameworks for communicating uncertainty to maintain public confidence.
• Address legitimacy deficits of technocratic governance: Ensure emergency measures are accompanied by robust democratic deliberation and parliamentary oversight to prevent populist exploitation of “corona dictatorship” narratives.
• Implement differentiated communication strategies: Tailor messaging to address distinct concerns, recognizing that economic grievances require different responses than cultural anxieties about freedom.
• Design sector-specific economic support programs: Create targeted interventions based on sectors’ essentiality and physicality, with direct income support for high-contact workers and digitalization assistance for adaptable businesses.
• Engage labor organizations proactively: Include trade unions in crisis planning to channel grievances through institutional rather than contentious channels.
• Account for regional economic and political variations: Tailor crisis policies to regional vulnerabilities and allow flexibility within coordinated European frameworks to prevent uneven protest responses across member states.
• Maintain proportionality in emergency measures: Implement sunset clauses and clear metrics for lifting restrictions to prevent the perception of disproportionate government overreach.
• Preserve channels for democratic contestation: Allow socially-distanced protests and maintain legitimate opposition spaces even during emergencies to prevent radicalization and integration with anti-system movements.
• Strengthen democratic resilience through civic education: Invest in media literacy and create participatory mechanisms that include societal representatives alongside scientific experts.